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Box Office Guru Preview: Proposal and Year One Bring More Laughs
Both films attempting to unseat The Hangover, Up.
by Gitesh Pandya | June 18, 2009
Discuss Article

Five of the top six films are comedies right now but Hollywood believes that's not enough so two new laughers open on Friday to give moviegoers even more options. Sandra Bullock headlines the phony engagement pic The Proposal while Jack Black and Michael Cera star in the lowbrow flick Year One targeting an audience that is younger and more male. The overall marketplace will need to work hard to avoid posting its fourth consecutive down weekend versus last year.

Sandra Bullock returns to her most profitable genre with the new romantic comedy The Proposal hoping to score her first number one hit in over ten years. The PG-13 pic finds the actress playing a Canadian-born book editor who forces her male assistant (Ryan Reynolds) to marry her in order to dodge deportation. Few in Hollywood would think to pair Miss Congeniality with Van Wilder, but the Buena Vista release does just that and will appeal to a core audience of adult women due to the main star and the subject matter. Despite the misleading title, the film should attract decent male business and score points with the date crowd.

Bullock and fellow A-lister Two Weeks Notice with Hugh Grant, which bowed to $14.3M in December 2002 on its way to $93.4M. If Proposal breaks $20M this weekend, her publicists will be touting a new career high. What they'll leave out is that she's been absent from the number one spot this entire decade last reaching the top in March 1999 with Forces of Nature co-starring Ben Affleck.

Father's Day weekend isn't usually a time when chick flicks open, but the timing is actually quite right for The Proposal. Adult women have had little offered to them this summer and it's been a good seven weeks since the last major romantic comedy Ghosts of Girlfriends Past opened. Direct competition will be light, but The Hangover will still be a factor for adults while Year One should take away some teens looking for a laugh. Opening in 3,056 locations, The Proposal could debut with about $22M.


Ryan Reynolds and Sandra Bullock in The Proposal

Teen boys not interested in fake engagement hijinks will get to line up for the comedy Year One starring Jack Black and Michael Cera. The PG-13 pic about two slacker hunter-gatherers that venture out of their village to explore the ancient world is aimed squarely at teenagers looking to switch their brains off after a long school year and sit and laugh at mindless fun. Both leads carry some starpower with this crowd and teen girls may also take some interest.

The recent flood of comedies of all types will provide substantial competition. Fearing being crushed by Optimus Prime, studios avoided programming any big action tentpoles in June opting instead for an endless string of laughers. Opening two star-driven comedies on the same day is never a good idea, but Sony is hoping that there is room for Year One to service its audience while Ms. Bullock taps into her crowd. But that puts a limit on the grossing potential since neither has must-see buzz. Young males are pretty reliable at this time of year so those not saving their cash for Transformers on Imax could give the pre-historic comedy a try. Year One makes its way into over 2,900 theaters on Friday and might collect about $20M this weekend.


Jack Black and Michael Cera in Year One

Fox hopes to get early buzz going for its 3D toon Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs with sneak previews this Sunday for Father's Day in 330 theaters nationwide. The threequel opens on Wednesday, July 1, ahead of the long Independence Day holiday frame and will steal away most of Up's 3D screens.

Two-week leader The Hangover will try to score that rare three-peat, but it won't be easy with two new competing star-driven comedies entering the scene. The men-behaving-badly pic has been showing remarkable strength with its 27% dip in the sophomore frame. Direct competition is much tougher this weekend so sales may fall by 30% to about $23M. That would give The Hangover a sensational $148M in only 17 days for Warner Bros.

Up has been neck and neck over the last two frames and this weekend should continue that trend. The Pixar smash could crack the $200M mark on Thursday in its 21st day of release becoming the animation company's eighth consecutive blockbuster to join the double-century club. New releases should not steal away too much thunder from the flying house adventure so a 30% decline would give Up around $21.5M boosting the cume to an eye-popping $223M.

Denzel Washington saw a decent but not spectacular bow for his hostage thriller The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 last weekend. Adult audiences are coming out, but are not exactly rushing with excitement. Look for a 45% drop this weekend giving the Sony release roughly $13M for a ten-day tally of $44M.

LAST YEAR: Proving that a remake of an older TV series anchored by a popular funnyman can work if done right, Steve Carell hit the top spot with Get Smart which debuted with $38.7M, or more than twice the opening of Will Ferrell's Land of the Lost this month. Warner Bros. found its way to a solid $130.3M with Smart. Tumbling 60% in its second weekend was Universal's comic actioner The Incredible Hulk which grossed $22.1M which was an improvement on 2003's Hulk which collapsed by 70% to $18.8M in its sophomore session. Kung Fu Panda held up well in third with $21.9M for Paramount and DreamWorks. Opening in fourth to disappointing results was eventual Razzie champ The Love Guru with $13.9M on its way to just $32.2M for Paramount. Fox rounded out the top five with the thriller The Happening which lost two-thirds of its opening weekend audience grossing $10.5M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Related Items
Movie: Year One
Celeb: Sandra Bullock
Ryan Reynolds
Jack Black
Michael Cera
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Comments (1-12 of 12 posts) | Reply
SuckitBaby
SuckitBaby writes:
on Jun 18 2009 06:24 PM

This list is pretty much wrong.

1. Year One $39 million
2. The Proposal $29 million
3. The Hangover $23 million
4. Up $20 million
5. Pelham 123 $14 million

Thats how the weekend will end up (get it? UP)


(Reply to this)
Seth T.
Seth T. writes:
on Jun 18 2009 07:23 PM

In reply to this comment (#2514323)
dude, no way is year one gonna make that much, i think the hangover mite be number 1 for the third week in a row ( at least i hope it is) lol

(Reply to this)
Shaggy89
Shaggy89 writes:
on Jun 18 2009 07:43 PM

i agree with Seth..39 million is about 100 percent way too much. I think the Proposal will win it with the hangover close behing. Up in third and Year One in 4th

(Reply to this)
ledawg1138
ledawg1138 writes:
on Jun 18 2009 08:08 PM

Another strange linup for a summer movie seasom. They shouldn't have released so many biggies in May.

(Reply to this)
SuckitBaby
SuckitBaby writes:
on Jun 18 2009 09:31 PM

Just wait... Everybody I know wants to go see Year One (why I have no idea, the promos never even made me chuckle... and I can't stand Michael Cera!) and since everybody I know has already seen The Hangover, this piece of garbage is gonna open big til bad word of mouth kills it.

(Reply to this)
sportzboy698
sportzboy698 writes:
on Jun 19 2009 05:27 AM

1. The Proposal- 28 m
2. The Hangover- 24 m
3. Up- 23 m
4. Year One- 18 m
5. Taking of Pelham 123- 13 m


(Reply to this)
BUCK69
BUCK69 writes:
on Jun 19 2009 05:46 AM

In reply to this comment (#2514401)
I try to never underestimate the stupidity of the general public [after all, they elected George W Bush twice] but I think that you're way off base here. If the trailers highlighted the best of Year One, this thing's going to tank bigger than Land of the Lost. Michael Cera and Jack Black are basically one-trick ponies without the box office appeal of Will Ferrell. Why Will Ferrell has any level of box office appeal is beyond me, but that's another story.

(Reply to this)
Poor_Frisco
Poor_Frisco writes:
on Jun 19 2009 09:11 AM

"Bullock and fellow A-lister Two Weeks Notice with Hugh Grant,"
That sentence made no sense. You might wanna do another read through before submitting your article.


(Reply to this)
whitey_mcwhite
whitey_mcwhite writes:
on Jun 19 2009 10:48 AM

I think it's going to be a tight race. Year One has more going for it than Land of the Lost did. No one knew exactly what kind of movie Land of the Lost was, was it a comedy, action movie, kids movie? Parents didn't want to take their kids because it was rated PG-13 and adults looking for humor or action didn't want to go because it was based on a cheesy Saturday morning cartoon show. Year One looks like it's going to teeter the line of PG-13 and R, we know it's a comedy, and it contains Jack Black's usual high jinks which are still popular.

At the same time though, The Hangover is showing to have long legs and The Proposal is going to steal all the daters. With Father's Day I think The Hangover's going to steal the box office, and Year One is going to end up in the back of a lot of people's minds as a rental (as it has in mine because I like the actors, but I'm not sure of it).

1) The Hangover - $25 Million
2) The Proposal - $23 Million
3) Up - $20 Million
4) Year One - $18 Million
5) Taking of Pelham - $12-13 Million


(Reply to this)
whitey_mcwhite
whitey_mcwhite writes:
on Jun 19 2009 10:49 AM

In reply to this comment (#2514526)
Poor_Frisco: You know I read that sentence like 10 times and thought the exact same thing!

(Reply to this)
D Effin W
D Effin W writes:
on Jun 20 2009 12:15 AM

I see Land of the Lost being a movie that is left in the shadows during the summer but will have amazing rental history because people who enjoy a good laugh will always want to refer back to a film like this. I am definitely not predicting any high points of this film but it will fall right into place with all other Will Ferrell film classics! Deny it or not, but it will be there!!!

(Reply to this)
Bob S.
Bob S. writes:
on Jun 20 2009 08:01 AM

I don't think you could be any more off, SuckitBaby. This is how I see the weekend petering out:

1. THE PROPOSAL - for all intents and purposes, this is the biggest rom-com to hit since early May counter-programming to the slew of blockbusters with an action/sci fi focus. It's going to draw in a lot of females and become the primary date movie, ending up with about $33-35M.

2. THE HANGOVER - I'm guessing that it'll have another very low drop, sustaining its great legs. I have a lot of friends that still want to see it, and I think it'll adhere closely to the model set by WEDDING CRASHERS on its way to becoming one of the highest grossing comedies of all time. Should end up with $25-28M.

3. YEAR ONE - I'm going to put this at $18-22M as a hugely disappointing opening for a PG-13 comedy. I will probably end up seeing it upon its DVD release, but I seriously have little excitement to watch it at this point.

4. UP - $18-20M, with another strong hold from last weekend.

5. THE TAKING OF PELHAM 1 2 3 - I see it falling about 60% from its $23M opening for something in the neighborhood of $12-14M.


(Reply to this)
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