Box Office Guru Preview: Vin Diesel Leads Final Charge of Summer
Babylon A.D., Disaster Movie, College and Traitor compete for Box Office.
A better-than-expected summer box office comes to a close over the four-day Labor Day holiday frame with the release of four new films plus the national expansion of a fifth title. Pushing and shoving their way into the multiplexes are Vin Diesel's action entry Babylon A.D., the spoof comedy Disaster Movie, Don Cheadle's spy thriller Traitor, and the raunchy comedy College. Going nationwide after a mediocre limited bow last week is the indie comedy Hamlet 2. The final weekend of summer usually finds moviegoers playing catch-up and flocking to big hits they just haven't had time to see yet. Some of the more popular holdover pics should continue to see solid numbers including heavyweight champ The Dark Knight which will crash through the $500M barrier this weekend.
It seems like every four years we get the Summer Olympics, a presidential election, and ... a Vin Diesel action movie? It's hard to believe, but it's true. The rugged hero's last action vehicle let loose on the American public was The Chronicles of Riddick which attacked theaters in June 2004 before the Athens Games and John Kerry's Boston convention. The star of The Pacifier returns to familiar territory with the sci-fi flick Babylon A.D. which will target Diesel's usual core audience of young males. The commercially-friendly PG-13 rating will allow the pic to reach young teen boys at a time when the main action offerings Death Race and Tropic Thunder carry R ratings.
By no means is Babylon a strong option though. Even its director Mathieu Kassovitz (Gothika) wants nothing to do with the final product. The marketing push has been ramped up in the last week so awareness is increasing and television spots are highlighting the special effects which are not all too impressive, but good enough for this time of year when standards are at a 52-week low. The combination of a brand name star returning to his bread and butter genre with a rating that will allow all of the target audience in should make for what could be a number one debut. Although Fox has had by far the worst summer of any major studio, it can at least end the season breathing a sigh of relief salvaging its first and only summer weekend at number one. Babylon A.D. launches very wide in over 3,200 theaters on Friday and could generate around $17M over the four-day weekend.

Gerard Depardieu and Vin Diesel in Babylon A.D.
Hollywood loves 14-year-olds. Make a comedy spoofing current pop culture hits and they're guaranteed to bike their way to the local multiplex. Lionsgate's Disaster Movie will be targeting these young teens with the latest PG-13 concoction of the successful spoof genre. The target audience probably won't even mind that fun is being poked not at disaster films, but at this summer's bigger hits like Indiana Jones, The Incredible Hulk, and Sex and the City. Look for sales to come from the same moviegoers that drove March's Superhero Movie to a $9.5M bow and January's Meet the Spartans to a $18.5M debut. Disaster will have a few competitors to deal with also aiming for teens so the pie will be split. Attacking 2,642 locations, Disaster Movie might take in about $12M over four days.

Disaster Movie
Overture makes an aggressive bid for adult audiences with its espionage thriller Traitor starring Don Cheadle as a spy accused of switching sides. The PG-13 film will play mostly to older moviegoers and is trying to sell itself with a Bourne Ultimatum feel. Cashing in at the box office will be tough since Cheadle, as well-respected as he is, is not really a major draw when anchoring a film. Co-stars Guy Pierce and Jeff Daniels don't add much bang either. Plus the subject matter is very deep for the end of summer when ticket buyers are not looking to do much thinking. Reviews have been mixed with good marks for the lead's performance, but harsh words for everything else. However, most films in the top ten this weekend will play to the under-30 crowd so an opportunity could present itself. Already playing in 2,054 theaters after an early Wednesday launch, Traitor could capture around $8M over four days and $10M across six days.

Don Cheadle and Jeff Daniels in Traitor
Yet another comedy tries to squeeze into the marketplace just ahead of students returning to classes. MGM's R-rated College is a raunchy tale of three high school seniors caught up in pledging fun at a local university. Older teens and young adults will be the primary audience here with zero interest coming from the over-25 set. R-rated comedies with little to no starpower that are aimed at this crowd usually struggle at the box office unless there is some sort of wild buzz spreading. That's not the case here. Overall excitement is low and there are no elements here to truly draw in a paying crowd. A brief theatrical run will set it up for a DVD release where kids on their holiday breaks will catch it on their lazy days off. Opening in about 2,000 locations, College could gross about $6M over the Friday-to-Monday period.
It seems like every four years we get the Summer Olympics, a presidential election, and ... a Vin Diesel action movie? It's hard to believe, but it's true. The rugged hero's last action vehicle let loose on the American public was The Chronicles of Riddick which attacked theaters in June 2004 before the Athens Games and John Kerry's Boston convention. The star of The Pacifier returns to familiar territory with the sci-fi flick Babylon A.D. which will target Diesel's usual core audience of young males. The commercially-friendly PG-13 rating will allow the pic to reach young teen boys at a time when the main action offerings Death Race and Tropic Thunder carry R ratings.
By no means is Babylon a strong option though. Even its director Mathieu Kassovitz (Gothika) wants nothing to do with the final product. The marketing push has been ramped up in the last week so awareness is increasing and television spots are highlighting the special effects which are not all too impressive, but good enough for this time of year when standards are at a 52-week low. The combination of a brand name star returning to his bread and butter genre with a rating that will allow all of the target audience in should make for what could be a number one debut. Although Fox has had by far the worst summer of any major studio, it can at least end the season breathing a sigh of relief salvaging its first and only summer weekend at number one. Babylon A.D. launches very wide in over 3,200 theaters on Friday and could generate around $17M over the four-day weekend.

Gerard Depardieu and Vin Diesel in Babylon A.D.
Hollywood loves 14-year-olds. Make a comedy spoofing current pop culture hits and they're guaranteed to bike their way to the local multiplex. Lionsgate's Disaster Movie will be targeting these young teens with the latest PG-13 concoction of the successful spoof genre. The target audience probably won't even mind that fun is being poked not at disaster films, but at this summer's bigger hits like Indiana Jones, The Incredible Hulk, and Sex and the City. Look for sales to come from the same moviegoers that drove March's Superhero Movie to a $9.5M bow and January's Meet the Spartans to a $18.5M debut. Disaster will have a few competitors to deal with also aiming for teens so the pie will be split. Attacking 2,642 locations, Disaster Movie might take in about $12M over four days.

Disaster Movie
Overture makes an aggressive bid for adult audiences with its espionage thriller Traitor starring Don Cheadle as a spy accused of switching sides. The PG-13 film will play mostly to older moviegoers and is trying to sell itself with a Bourne Ultimatum feel. Cashing in at the box office will be tough since Cheadle, as well-respected as he is, is not really a major draw when anchoring a film. Co-stars Guy Pierce and Jeff Daniels don't add much bang either. Plus the subject matter is very deep for the end of summer when ticket buyers are not looking to do much thinking. Reviews have been mixed with good marks for the lead's performance, but harsh words for everything else. However, most films in the top ten this weekend will play to the under-30 crowd so an opportunity could present itself. Already playing in 2,054 theaters after an early Wednesday launch, Traitor could capture around $8M over four days and $10M across six days.

Don Cheadle and Jeff Daniels in Traitor
Yet another comedy tries to squeeze into the marketplace just ahead of students returning to classes. MGM's R-rated College is a raunchy tale of three high school seniors caught up in pledging fun at a local university. Older teens and young adults will be the primary audience here with zero interest coming from the over-25 set. R-rated comedies with little to no starpower that are aimed at this crowd usually struggle at the box office unless there is some sort of wild buzz spreading. That's not the case here. Overall excitement is low and there are no elements here to truly draw in a paying crowd. A brief theatrical run will set it up for a DVD release where kids on their holiday breaks will catch it on their lazy days off. Opening in about 2,000 locations, College could gross about $6M over the Friday-to-Monday period.
on Aug 28 2008 05:18 PM Nope I really don't think Babylon AD is going to do that well, I say 12 mil, and 27 total. I think unfortunately Disaster movie will pick up 17 mil this weekend. I think Tropic Thunder will pick up 13 or 14 mil. Death Race will get 7 mil I think. Too bad about Babylon AD, it's so hard to come by a good sci fi movie now a days. Im going to wait to rent the inevitable BABYLON AD Director's Cut. (Reply to this) |
on Aug 28 2008 05:26 PM Worst week ever again? (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 05:30 PM In reply to this comment (#2006476) I think so nothing to do but seeing something twice or catch up on something you missed (Reply to this) |
on Aug 28 2008 05:50 PM Lame movies opening this week; I'm going to catch up on Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Bottle Shock. (Reply to this) |
on Aug 28 2008 06:07 PM A couple questions if anyone can help me out... What did Babylon AD's director that would make it seem that he "wants nothing to do with the final project"? i'm trying not to care... but who is the character supposed to be in that pic for disaster movie. that character seems to be in every ad for this film (if you can call it that) i'm might be up to speed on all the pop culture references so just curious. i also think Babylon will underperform and disaster will be on top... TDK comes out here on IMAX though so that'll be a nice holdover till fall starts (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 06:12 PM Id see Disastor Movie, but ive been having a hard time latly and I need to be around people who make me laugh. Im spending my money on Mercenares2 this weekend and maybe i'll contribute to The Dark Nights 500mill haul this week. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 06:14 PM In reply to this comment (#2006512) I made some spelling errors, my bad. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 06:59 PM there won't be a Director's Cut of Babylon AD, the guy is already having problems with FOX, you think they'll let him edit the DVD? too bad, no matter what people say, i like vin disel, but i think pitch black was his best movie so far (or maybe A Man Apart), pitch black had a great tone to it that got lost in Chronicles of Riddick (although the ending to Riddick, in my opinion, is one of the best in Hollywood.....ever) (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 07:32 PM poor vin diesel... why doesn't he try a different role? (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 09:40 PM This may be a movie history first: A movie ("Disaster Movie") opens the same day as its sequel ("Babylon AD"). Hooray for Hollywood! (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 10:20 PM I agree with Bruce Campbell, WORST WEEK EVER. And I agree with whatever RT staff member wrote about people playing catch-up and seeing films they've missed the past month or so. The thing that confuses the hell out of me is that September 12 has 3 movies that could deliver box office in Righteous Kill, Burn after Reading, and yet another Tyler Perry film. . . why the hell didn't they open one of those this weekend? (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 10:24 PM In reply to this comment (#2006509) poor_frisco, that's supposed to be amy winehouse in the pic from disaster movie. for the record, i loved hamlet 2. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 28 2008 11:14 PM I wonder how many times critics will say "Disaster movie is a disaster"... (Reply to this) |
on Aug 28 2008 11:43 PM In reply to this comment (#2006698) It's especially odd because Labor Day Weekend always adds to box-office. I mean, imagine how much money a good movie would make against these movies on a holiday... It's like sabotage. (Reply to this) |
on Aug 28 2008 11:51 PM In reply to this comment (#2006734) That'd be almost as uninspired as the jokes in the movie... Almost. (Reply to this) |
on Aug 29 2008 12:37 AM Has anyone seen Fly me to the moon? I know it is kids flick, but it was designed to be the first 3d animation with 3d in mind. There is already a ride of it in development. I haven't heard one thing, good or bad about it. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 29 2008 01:53 AM Saw Babylon A.D. What a waste of time. People were literally FALLING ASLEEP during the film! I wish I had been one of them. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 29 2008 04:43 AM Poor Frisco, the reason that the director of "Babylon AD" wanted nothing to do with the final product is that the studio cut fifteen minutes from the theatrical release. The director claimed that those fifteen minutes were crucial to having the movie "make sense". That being said, ClearlyBlind may be correct....Fox might not add in those deleted minutes in the DVD release. It would be in their benefit to do so though....if it results in a better DVD release. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 29 2008 10:46 AM NOT the worst weekend ever for one big hilarious reason: HAMLET2. pay no mind to the T-eter on this one, folks. it is the real deal. In all honesty, liked it even better than 'pineapple' and 'tropic,' both of which I felt were very strong entries. Hamlet 2 offers up one of the funniest characters in recent memory in wacky drama teacher Dana Marschz. Steve Coogan makes the character simultaneously dimwitted and endearing. There's a nice balance of sight gags, witty dialogue, slapstick humor and of course, great music. Not only is it humorous, but by film's end it packs a surprising emotional punch, becoming more affecting than the majority of the inspirational teacher movies it parodies. Since there's nothing else to see this weekend, do yourself a favor and go laugh your rump off at Hamlet 2. (Reply to this) |
on Aug 30 2008 03:47 AM Disaster Movie was horrible. I work at a theatre and get to pre-screen movies. that character for the ads is supposed to be Amy Winehouse. Babylon A.D. had an ok to decent story line. but with the sales of Babylon A.D. so far i doubt it will top 8 million for the weekend. it might beat Death Race but Death Race has a better chance of beating BAbylon A.D. Tropic Thunder will still be on top in my guess. I work at one of the busiest theatres in the nation from what ive been told so as long as what my theatre is doin is similar these guesses should be accurate (Reply to this) |
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