Box Office Guru Wrapup: Bourne Beats Bart for Box Office Crown
Good night, Springden. There will be no encore.
Matt Damon set a
new opening weekend record for the month of August with the top spot bow of
The Bourne Ultimatum,
the third installment in the actor's signature spy series. The frame's other new
releases saw more modest openings while most holdovers held up well. The wide
assortment of popular hits allowed the North American box office to soar to the
highest grossing August weekend in history.
Racing past expectations, Universal's The Bourne Ultimatum scored a spectacular opening grossing an estimated $70.2M in its first weekend in theaters. Infiltrating 3,660 locations, the PG-13 film averaged a muscular $19,175 per venue and beat out the $52.5M bow of its predecessor The Bourne Supremacy by a healthy 34%. That action entry launched in July 2004 and went on to gross $176.1M. The new entry was also directed by Paul Greengrass and co-starred Julia Stiles and Joan Allen.
The eye-popping debut set a new benchmark for the month of August edging out previous record-holder Rush Hour 2 which bowed to $67.4M in 2001. That franchise's next installment Rush Hour 3 plans to exact revenge when it opens this Friday gunning for the number one spot. Ultimatum also generated the second largest opening weekend in studio history for Universal trailing only The Lost World which collected $72.1M over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of its holiday debut in May 1997 during what was then the biggest opening weekend of all time.
Matt Damon proved once again how popular and relevant his Jason Bourne character is to today's audiences. Ultimatum also earned the best reviews of any action picture this year so even though it was the summer's eleventh sequel and fifth threequel, the film still played out as an event picture for movie fans. The opening was even bigger than any debut in the James Bond or Mission: Impossible franchises. Openings for last year's newest chapters for those spy sagas were $47.7M for Mission: Impossible III in May and $40.8M for November's Casino Royale.
If the estimate holds for The Bourne Ultimatum, it will become the fourth film in five weeks to open north of $70M following Transformers, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, and The Simpsons Movie. The string of big hits set the July box office ablaze and has now spilled over into the final month of summer which should continue the fireworks. Plus most films have been holding up well over the last few weeks. Of the 37 holdover cases in the top ten during the last five weekends, only four have witnessed declines of more than 50%. By comparison, nine had such drops over the same five-week period a year ago.
Last weekend's top film The Simpsons Movie was the only pic in the top ten to take a big tumble dropping 65% in its sophomore weekend to finish in second place with an estimated $25.6M. That gave the Fox blockbuster a robust total of $128.6M in only ten days of release. The $75M production might find its way to the neighborhood of $190M domestically. Overseas, Comic Book Guy and pals grossed another $47.3M shooting the international total to $187M from 75 territories for a sensational global gross of $315.5M and counting.
Racing past expectations, Universal's The Bourne Ultimatum scored a spectacular opening grossing an estimated $70.2M in its first weekend in theaters. Infiltrating 3,660 locations, the PG-13 film averaged a muscular $19,175 per venue and beat out the $52.5M bow of its predecessor The Bourne Supremacy by a healthy 34%. That action entry launched in July 2004 and went on to gross $176.1M. The new entry was also directed by Paul Greengrass and co-starred Julia Stiles and Joan Allen.
The eye-popping debut set a new benchmark for the month of August edging out previous record-holder Rush Hour 2 which bowed to $67.4M in 2001. That franchise's next installment Rush Hour 3 plans to exact revenge when it opens this Friday gunning for the number one spot. Ultimatum also generated the second largest opening weekend in studio history for Universal trailing only The Lost World which collected $72.1M over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of its holiday debut in May 1997 during what was then the biggest opening weekend of all time.
Matt Damon proved once again how popular and relevant his Jason Bourne character is to today's audiences. Ultimatum also earned the best reviews of any action picture this year so even though it was the summer's eleventh sequel and fifth threequel, the film still played out as an event picture for movie fans. The opening was even bigger than any debut in the James Bond or Mission: Impossible franchises. Openings for last year's newest chapters for those spy sagas were $47.7M for Mission: Impossible III in May and $40.8M for November's Casino Royale.
If the estimate holds for The Bourne Ultimatum, it will become the fourth film in five weeks to open north of $70M following Transformers, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, and The Simpsons Movie. The string of big hits set the July box office ablaze and has now spilled over into the final month of summer which should continue the fireworks. Plus most films have been holding up well over the last few weeks. Of the 37 holdover cases in the top ten during the last five weekends, only four have witnessed declines of more than 50%. By comparison, nine had such drops over the same five-week period a year ago.
Last weekend's top film The Simpsons Movie was the only pic in the top ten to take a big tumble dropping 65% in its sophomore weekend to finish in second place with an estimated $25.6M. That gave the Fox blockbuster a robust total of $128.6M in only ten days of release. The $75M production might find its way to the neighborhood of $190M domestically. Overseas, Comic Book Guy and pals grossed another $47.3M shooting the international total to $187M from 75 territories for a sensational global gross of $315.5M and counting.
(1-18 of 18 posts) | Reply
 on Aug 05 2007 09:01 PM This has been a fantastic summer at the movies. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 05 2007 09:02 PM So my initial predicted 70% dropoff wasn't as far off as I thought, and how wrong boxofficeguru forecasted ULTIMATUM's opening. Most of us here got it right that it will open to at least over 60 million. Boxofficeguru, you need to stop generalizing things! We know you got a busy schedule to think and write more in-depth analysis, but your reasonings behind your prediction for ULTIMATUM's opening is very contradictory. You need to do a better job on your RUSH HOUR 3 prediction now, or you will lose credibility! (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 05 2007 09:15 PM Oops, when I mentioned 70% dropoff on my last post, I was referring to my initial prediction for the SIMPSONS MOVIE's sophomore weekend dropoff. Now I am expecting RUSH HOUR 3 to open weeker than RUSH HOUR 2. This one could go either way. If audiences are hungry for Chris Tucker due to a 6-year abesence from the big screen, may I say a 68 million opening identical to its predecessor? If the love is gone, then maybe a 57 million opening? Too early to tell, we'll see! (Reply to this) |
 on Aug 05 2007 09:15 PM In reply to this comment (#1014573) Amen. I can't stand these people who think Box Office Guru is God. NO I'M NOT BEGGIN FOR AN ARGUMENT, PEOPLE. (Reply to this) |
 on Aug 05 2007 09:52 PM Scarborough Fair, I must respectfully disagree. This hasn't been the best summer for films. The May threequels were all major disappointments, Evan Almighty was downright terrible, Ocean's Thirteen was forgettable, and I'm sorry, but when a movie directed by Michael-friggin-Bay is touted as one of the summer's better films, you know you're in trouble. With that said, I will admit that there have been some surprisingly great summer flicks as well, including Knocked Up, Live Free or Die Hard, Ratatouille, Rescue Dawn, and The Bourne Ultimatum. Even The Simpsons Movie was pretty decent considering how poor the show has become. This has been a decent summer at the movies, but fantastic? I don't know about that... (Reply to this) |
 on Aug 05 2007 10:52 PM Finally, it's good to see a deserving film tower over all others. Here's hoping it beat MI:2's $215 mill gross and becomes the best and highest grossing spy flick in a generation. Let's see Bond top that. I'm hoping Ultimatum holds well with a 50% drop off from next weekend and holds its own against Rush Hour 3 which is guranteed AT Least $50 million opening. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 05 2007 11:19 PM Bourne was the first big movie I saw that exceeded my expectations. The fastest 2 hours of my life. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 06 2007 04:03 AM In reply to this comment (#1014645) I think he meant in terms of box-office performance. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 06 2007 06:43 AM In reply to this comment (#1014584) Bookworm1994, I wish you have something to add to this discussion, because nobody is God when it comes to box office forecasting. Rather, we want more intelligent analysis, and it is just plain stupid for anybody to make a prediction that contradicts his own rationale, and that was what boxofficeguru did when he predict a 55 million opening for ULTIMATUM when everything he mentioned actually point to a much stronger weekend (SUPREMACY opened to 52.5 million in 2004). These discussion boards is supposedly our comments towards boxofficeguru's predictions and his thoughts. If we do not agree with him, we certainly can post counter arguments. Perhaps he may even 'copy' some of the opinions here for his future reference. Who knows?! Boxofficeguru is certainly not god, hence I keep pointing his errors. Rather, he constantly shows us that any of us can be box office analysts, plus need a little bit of luck too when you do not have the time to watch movies. It's all about consistency of his forecasting! (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 06 2007 09:07 AM I'm pessimistic about Rush Hour. I don't think the duo is attractive anymore...40 or less :) (Reply to this) |
 on Aug 06 2007 09:11 AM i generally find the weekend warrior at comingsoon.net to be pretty close almost every weekend =D (Reply to this) |
 on Aug 06 2007 09:58 AM A fantastic summer in terms of money, as Metafact said. Personally, I liked Spider-Man 3, but even if I'm not counting that movie, there were still a bunch of movies that made loads of money despite being awful. However, it seens like we're experiencing a turnaround. With the exception of Harry Potter 5, just about all the big movies starting from Ratatouille and stretching to The Bourne Ultimatum have been quite good and worth the money the audiences spent on them. Rush Hour 3 looks like it will break the chain, but July didn't disappoint as much as May or June, and August is off to a good start. (Reply to this) |
 on Aug 06 2007 10:25 AM Bourne was pretty good, but Live Free or Die Hard was definitely better, and I'll take Bond over him anyday. No Reservations was a charmingly predictible chick flick, so if your into that kind of film you should go check it out, I thought it was pretty good(B). (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 06 2007 10:30 AM In reply to this comment (#1014645) In terms of its critical reception, OCEAN'S THIRTEEN is satisfying to an extent, so it is not really forgettable, unless you are not a fan of the franchise to begin with. I think we do not have any huge misfires so far this summer. Even EVAN ALMIGHTY manage to get close to the 100 million mark, and it is certainly not bombing like AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS or KINGDOM OF HEAVEN did a few years ago. However, one can only just tell how poorly the arthouse flicks has been doing all summer to prove that regular moviegoers are indeed very satisfied with mainstream Hollywood this summer! When so many of Hollywood's movies are getting the same high critical approval as some of the best reviewed indie flicks of this summer, what will audiences choose? Of course they will choose to embrace the bigger budgeted pictures! This is not something that is healthy for the business, but it is reality. The only mildly succesful indie pics so far that I can think of is WAITRESS and SICKO, but the former lost momentum right when everybody were criticizing the May 3quels, while the latter did decent documentary business, it will not top 30 million. Instead, we got a slew of indie misfires that include SUNSHINE and RESCUE DAWN, movies that receive great reviews but got tepid public reaction even when considering its minimal platform release. RESCUE DAWN's sophomore weekend, which faces the BOURNE ULTIMATUM's debut weekend, crashed by over 60% from its already mediocre start. And TALK TO ME's 3rd weekend average of less than $3500 per screen means the movie will top out at no more than 8 million. This summer teaches us that when Hollywood is giving the public what it likes, and I also mean 'upscale' audiences here, then even the great indie flicks will suffer! (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 06 2007 10:36 AM Glad to see that The Bourne Ultimatum did so well. It's worth every penny. But why the hell did so many people bother to see Underdog? Hopefully I'll get to see Stardust soon, and Rescue Dawn, if it ever bothers coming near where I live. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 06 2007 10:43 AM In reply to this comment (#1014645) Just briefly add that TRANSFORMERS has a lot of passionate fans, and obviously many moviegoers including myself enjoyed the movie (but most people who like the movie, including myself, agree that the final act was very unsatisfying and almost tarnish the entire movie, just like SPIDERMAN 3's final act did to that movie). I would not readily call TRANSFORMERS as one of the best movies of this summer when so many other movies got much more raver reviews and support, if not actual ticket sales. And also, it felt strange that the highly criticized SPIDERMAN 3 got overall better reviews and higher grosses than TRANSFORMERS, and almost guaranteed being singled out for criticism!! Life is just so unfair! (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 06 2007 10:59 AM In reply to this comment (#1015708) There is always demand for dumbed down family fare, especially when such project is attached to Disney. Of course, with RATATOUILLE dying down more rapidly than expected plus not really being very kids friendly itself, it just paved the way. (Reply to this) |
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on Aug 06 2007 12:35 PM Latest news: The final estimates show that BOURNE ULTIMATUM made 67.65 million, which makes it barely ahead of RUSH HOUR 2's 67.4 million record opening, and a full 2.5 million less than originally estimated. Although obviously Universal wanted some media coverage by inflating its initial forecast, it has been doing ok this summer with KNOCKED UP, CHUCK AND LARRY and now BOURNE delivering the goods! If only they did not greenlight EVAN ALMIGHTY..... (Reply to this) |
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