ROTTEN TOMATOES: Box Office Guru Preview: Rambo Leads Army of New Films Into Battle

Box Office Guru Preview: Rambo Leads Army of New Films Into Battle

Untraceable, Meet the Spartans, How She Move also opening this weekend

by Gitesh Pandya | January 24, 2008

The resurrection of yesterday's movie heroes continues with Sylvester Stallone's new film Rambo which finds the vet in Southeast Asia where he is pulled into another battle with baddies. The R-rated film from Lionsgate follows the actor's Rocky Balboa which defied the odds last winter to become both a critical and commercial success. Stallone directed both films. Rambo also comes after Bruce Willis saw a lucrative reboot of the Die Hard franchise last summer, and arrives before Harrison Ford's much-anticipated return as Indiana Jones this May.

John Rambo may not be as loved by fans as those other characters which means it may gross the least amount of dough at the domestic box office. The new Rambo will surely attract older males with the nostalgia factor, but younger men are also being targeted by using today's rock music in the television spots and print ads with images of a cult-like Sly. The image could easily be spray-painted on a wall next to the heads of Andre the Giant and Che Guevara. Rambo is getting the widest release of any new film on Friday and with football taking the weekend off, male audiences will be more available. Most of the competition will come from Cloverfield's second frame, but those wanting intense violence and a ton of bullets flying around will find no better choice. Attacking 2,751 theaters, Rambo could debut to about $18M this weekend.

Good ol' Sly is back
Diane Lane goes solo anchoring the crime thriller Untraceable which finds the Oscar-nominated actress playing a federal agent on the trail of a psychopath that uses the internet to kill his victims. The R-rated film will cater to adult audiences and skew more towards women. Female-led detective thrillers usually struggle at the box office, however Untraceable will benefit from one the best trailers this winter for a non-monster movie. Sony's marketing efforts have been solid with Lane's name and the intriguing plot being the main selling points used to lure in ticket buyers. The rating may keep out younger net-savvy teens that might have interest plus an abundance of films will keep things competitive. The sophomore weekend of 27 Dresses will surely draw away some of Untraceable's audience, especially those who would rather see something lighter and not so grim. Landing in 2,368 theaters, Untraceable might take away roughly $10M this weekend.

Diane Lane and that Hanks kid in Untraceable
Fox dishes out yet another dose of spoof comedy with Meet the Spartans skewering all sorts of hit films plus Britney and non-Britney pop culture events of the past year. The PG-13 entry is going after the same teen and young adult audience that came out in solid numbers for Epic Movie, which bowed at number one this weekend last year with $18.6M, and the previous year's Date Movie which debuted to a similar $19.1M. However, the spoof genre showed signs of aging last October when the studio suffered a lowly $5.6M opening for the sports comedy The Comebacks. The target audience is getting a little sick of these antics so the opening for Spartans should be weaker than Epic's but better than Comebacks'. Hefty competition, especially from Cloverfield, will also be a major hurdle to overcome this weekend. Opening in 2,603 locations, Meet the Spartans may launch with about $9M.

Meet the Spartans
Step dancing is back again, this time in female form, with How She Move which Paramount Vantage is releasing for Viacom sibling MTV Films. The PG-13 pic revolves around a talented young woman's quest to win a dance competition and honor her dead sister's memory in the process. Move features mostly newcomers and will target teens and urban youth. The same audience powered January hits like You Got Served and Stomp the Yard to number one openings of $16.1M and $21.8M, respectively. But Move lacks the marketing muscle that Sony has a patent on for these types of films. Success with the core crowd should result, but crossover business with other groups will be tough. Plus teens have Cloverfield and Meet the Spartans competing for their attention too so there will be blood. Stepping into about 1,500 sites, How She Move could bow to around $6M.

How She Move
After scoring seven Academy Award nominations, the most for any big studio title, Michael Clayton goes back out into wide release on Friday. Warner Bros. is hoping to catch audiences who maybe didn't catch it the first time but are now sold on the George Clooney drama because of all the kudos attention. Clayton, which has grossed $39.4M to date, goes back out into 1,102 theaters. A year ago this weekend, the studio gave similar treatment to The Departed which expanded to 1,453 locations for a $3.4M gross in its 17th frame. This time the studio is using the ads to also inform fans of the legal thriller's February 19 DVD release date so some may just wait a few weeks to catch the acclaimed pic at home. Michael Clayton may find itself with roughly $3M this weekend.

Michael Clayton gets a second run
Last weekend, the beastly disaster flick Cloverfield exploded with a record opening of $46.1M over the four-day holiday frame. A steep drop is likely on the sophomore frame since frenzied upfront demand led to most fans catching the thriller already. Plus Rambo and some of the other new titles will pull audiences away in different directions. A 55% three-day tumble would leave Paramount with about $18M and a ten-day cume of $69M.

Chick flick 27 Dresses is not worried about Stallone, however Diane Lane and the Spartans could provide some competition this weekend for the Katherine Heigl laugher. Audiences have been having a good time with the Fox release so a 40% drop could occur. That would give 27 Dresses roughly $13.5M over three days and a total of $44M after ten days.

Batman franchise alums Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman enjoyed a terrific hold for their pic The Bucket List last weekend which is playing to an older and more patient crowd. A 30% fall would put the Warner Bros. film at around $10.5M pushing the sum to $58M.

LAST YEAR: Spoof comedy led the way with Fox's Epic Movie which bowed on top to the tune of $18.6M on its way to $39.7M. Opening right behind in second with almost identical per-theater average was the Universal drama Smokin' Aces with $14.6M from 600 fewer theaters. A $35.7M final gross resulted. Former chart-topper Night at the Museum followed in third with $9.6M while the dance drama Stomp the Yard placed fourth with $7.7M. A hair behind in fifth with a $7.7M debut was Sony's Jennifer Garner drama Catch and Release which found its way to just $15.3M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Related Items

Movie:	How She Move
	Untraceable
	Meet the Spartans
	27 Dresses
	Cloverfield
	The Bucket List
	Michael Clayton
	The Comebacks
	Epic Movie
	Stomp the Yard
	Die Hard 4: Live Free or Die Hard
	Rocky Balboa
	The Departed
	Date Movie
	You Got Served
Celeb:	Bruce Willis
	Sylvester Stallone
	Harrison Ford
	George Clooney

(1-9 of 9 posts) | Reply

Boss Fan writes:
on Jan 24 2008 05:21 PM

I've been excited about Rambo for a long time. I know it won't be high art, but if it is exactly what one would expect walking into a Rambo movie, I'll be satisfied. Even in some of his worst films, Sly himself is usually better than the material. He always does more for the films than they do for him. He really is an under-rated actor. His fault for making stupid decisions when it comes to picking certain films, I guess, but he is consistently good and it looks as if with Rambo he knows exactly what anyone seeing a Rambo movie at this point would want. It might be dumb, but it won't be boring or half-a*sed.

As much as I hate to say it though, I think the analyst here is underestimating "Meet the Spartans" and "How She Move". He sites, without any real significant reasons why this case would be any different, all the films just like these movies that have become surprise blockbusters (and each year at this very same time nonetheless), but then lowballs these film's potential BO take. I hope he is right, but I have a feeling plenty of kids and stupid people are in the mood to see Britney kicked into a bottomless pit. As for the urban dance movies, I don't know why anyone was ever in the mood for those, but there has been one each year for the past five years that has become an inexplicable hit. Hell, it goes back to the days of "Breakin'" and "Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo"! (God help me.) If these two do tank, the only reason will be because there is more competition this weekend than their counterparts faced in Januarys passed.

I like Diane Lane. Her new flick looks pretty middle of the road. I have some interest in it, but I feel like I've seen it before in various incarnations. Plus, these killer-thrillers have been letting me down on a regular basis lately (let me guess, twist/gotcha! ending?) I'll check it out at some point, but regardless of the film itself I'd like to see her open a movie all by herself to $10 million. That's solid, and she deserves some kudos.

And now we find out if "Cloverfield" has legs.....

(Reply to this)

Poor_Frisco writes:
on Jan 24 2008 11:37 PM

i think i'll avoid all of this week's new offerings.
i wanna see the diving bell and the butterfly.
or possibly Cloverfield for a third time, there will be blood for a second time, or michael clayton for a second time.
happy january

(Reply to this)

dahluzz writes:
on Jan 25 2008 10:58 AM

In reply to this comment (#1517302)
it's really not that 'inexplicable' as to why the anual dance movie makes money. there a lot of black young people who like seeing movies and there are not that many movies that come out which feature a young black cast. many of these dance movies do. so when one comes out, a lot of black people relate to it and go to see it.

this also explains why tyler perry movies and 'the perfect holiday' and 'first sunday' make significant money. I'm not saying that black people only go to see movies with black people in them. However, it makes sense that because there are fewer films featuring predominantly black casts that when one comes out, it is especially popular among the black community.

In addition, these movies are the only ones depicting a burgeoning dance subculture. Anyone, regardless of race, who is into dance is going to see the movie because there are usually only one or two films each year that deal with the subject.

(Reply to this)

Matanuki writes:
on Jan 25 2008 12:46 PM

In reply to this comment (#1520796)
What I'd like to see is more films with predimonantly black casts (I hate calling them "black movies") that also have great stories. I miss films like Mo Betta Blues, Eve's Bayou, To Sleep With Anger, Devil in a Blue Dress, A Raisin in The Sun, Jason's Lyric. These days it's mostly low brow exploitative dreck like Who's your Caddie? and First Sunday that pander to the lowest common denominator masquarading as representative of black interests.
It's why I can appreciate films like Antoine Fisher, The Great Debaters, and even Hustle & Flow. But we are offered so few each year, especially in the mainstream. Leaves a great deal to be desired.

(Reply to this)

Boss Fan writes:
on Jan 25 2008 03:05 PM

In reply to this comment (#1520796)
Well, the problem is not that they don't appeal to a certain aspect of our culture, but that they suck. They are crappy movies, poorly written and poorly made. The reason it is surprising that they make money (the dance movies, and now that you mention it, the ones like "First Sunday" too) is not because I can't see their appeal, but because they are typically awful. And it%u2019s not because they are "black movies" that they are automatically a hit. Many of those flop on a regular basis ("Who's Your Cady?", et al). Comparing something like "Eve's Bayou" to "Little Man" just because they have predominantly black casts is still comparing apples and oranges. You might as well compare "The Godfather" to "Dude, Where's My Car?" because they both have casts made up primarily of white people. My point is not who the films are marketed to, but the quality of them. The annual dance flicks, the Tyler Perry shtick and the lame ghetto comedies are just tired retreads that indeed inexplicably make money. Bad movies, or at least ones that are essentially the same movie with a different title being released once (or multiple times) a year, are still bad movies, regardless of color.

(Reply to this)

bat-fink writes:
on Jan 25 2008 04:30 PM

Most of the BAD RAMBO reviews are actually GREAT reviews, to the common man. The reviewers on RT, are magazine and Newspaper reviewers by the looks of em. And they are on the wrong side of the fence .

TOO GORY! TOO VIOLENT! Grow some Spine dammit! This aint no chick flick!

(Reply to this)

Matanuki writes:
on Jan 25 2008 04:44 PM

In reply to this comment (#1522595)
Who you tellin', bat-fink! Man, that's the funniest thing. The negative reviews are actually funner reads than the positive reviews. To see these critics squirm are recoil from *gasp* violence in a Rambo movie! lol. Oh my, somebody call the thought police. You said it best, my friend. This most certainly ain't no chick flick. So count me in for the guilty pleasure, chief. In fact, this makes me that much more interested in his forthcoming take on Death Wish. It can't come soon enough.

(Reply to this)

Matanuki writes:
on Jan 25 2008 05:33 PM

I wouldn't make that comparison. It of course would be an insult to even consider it. I am simply saying that we could do with more "Eve's Bayou"s, and fewer "Little Man"s.

(Reply to this)

jeanpaul writes:
on Jan 29 2008 03:53 AM

JOHN RAMBO IS AN EXCELLENT AND ENGAGING ACTION/WAR MOVIE.

It's dark, it's voilent? Yes. But it's a well crafted, no hold barrs action movie starring the ultimate action warrior. It's engaging from start to end.

It's ending was very touching and heartfelt to me.
Welcome home, JOHN. You deserve to rest, at last.

Don't listen to the critics. They're all over "No country for old men"... and whoever I meet who has seen "No country" tells me it's a dissapointment on all levels. So the critics's opinions are truely crap, and that's being PROVEN at the Box-office.

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