Box Office Guru Preview: Will Ferrell Goes for the Gold
Two promising new comedies target different age groups and look to close off a red hot March box office with strong opening weekend sales.
Paramount offers the Will Ferrell pic "Blades of Glory" while Disney goes after the kids with the animated flick "Meet the Robinsons." Together, the pictures should help the marketplace surge and allow the top ten to cross the $100M mark for the fifth consecutive frame. The box office has not seen this kind of streak since last summer. Smaller films entering the multiplexes include the action pic "The Lookout" from Miramax and Universal's uplifting drama "Peaceful Warrior."
Comedy king Will Ferrell skates into theaters everywhere looking for another gold medal with his newest laugher "Blades of Glory." The PG-13 film finds the funnyman and Jon Heder playing rival figure skaters who must team up as a pair in order to compete again. Amy Poehler, Will Arnett, Jenna Fischer, and Craig T. Nelson co-star. "Blades" boasts the two main ingredients to a successful comedy hit - a bankable star and a unique concept. Add in the very funny commercials and trailers and Paramount is well-positioned to score its second number one hit of the year joining fellow star-driven comedy "Norbit." Both pics were produced by DreamWorks.
Ferrell left the competition in the dust last summer with "Talladega Nights" which bowed to a robust $47M on its way to a $148M final. "Blades" doesn't have as big of a marketing push or the prime summer play period so its opening will not soar as high. But the former "Saturday Night Live" star will again prove that he is a reliable draw. The industry had some doubts in 2005 when both "Bewitched" and "Kicking and Screaming" failed to reach $65M. Ferrell's 2004 hit "Anchorman" debuted to $28.4M and "Blades" should play out like that one, only bigger. Teens and young adults will be the driving force plus there is plenty of cross-gender appeal. Though the marketplace is crowded with many options, there aren't too many direct threats. "Wild Hogs," the only major comedy, is getting old as is "300" which most high school and college students have already seen. Spinning into over 3,000 theaters, "Blades of Glory" should finish in first place and win about $37M over the weekend.

Ferrell and Heder in "Blades of Glory."
Disney uses its patented moves to go after the family audience with its latest animated offering "Meet the Robinsons." With most digital toons these days being of the PG variety, "Robinsons" carries a G rating which it hopes will help convince parents to buy tickets for even the youngest of their children. The story follows an orphan boy who befriends a kind family and features the voices of Angela Bassett, Tom Selleck, and Adam West. In the cartoon world, films sell best when they are comedies and feature popular comedians in central roles. "Robinsons" at least has the first factor working for it.
The marketing has been strong and trailers have been funny. But unlike the studio's last film for kids, "Bridge to Terabithia," this time competition will be a force. "TMNT" and "The Last Mimzy" will only be in their second weekends and are set to steal away about $20M worth of business from the same target audience. Luckily, the weekend's two other new films will attract different segments of the moviegoing crowd. "Meet the Robinsons" does not have the firepower to reach the heights of Pixar pics. Rather, it may bring out the same size audience as last fall's "Open Season" which bowed to $23.2M from an ultrawide 3,833 locations. "Meet the Robinsons" bows in roughly 3,200 sites but could exploit its studio's brand name to deliver a similar gross of about $23M.

Let's "Meet the Robinsons."
Years after leaving the sitcom world of NBC's "3rd Rock From the Sun," Joseph Gordon-Levitt anchors the heist thriller "The Lookout." The R-rated Miramax release comes from writer-turned-rookie-director Scott Frank and co-stars Jeff Daniels. Starpower is seriously lacking here and that will hurt its box office prospects. Reviews have been good, but the target audience of young adults have "Blades of Glory," "300," and "Shooter" to choose from and all of them offer more for the money. With only so much marketing and distribution strength behind it, the film will have a tough time just getting an invite to the top ten. "The Lookout" debuts in about 1,000 theaters on Friday and could collect about $4M over three days.

Jeff Daniels and Joseph Gordon-Levitt in "The Lookout."
In an unorthodox approach, Universal will be releasing the inspirational drama "Peaceful Warrior" in 615 theaters this weekend but most moviegoers will actually be getting free tickets through a promotion with Best Buy. The PG-13 film starring Nick Nolte was given a limited release last summer and grossed more than $1M from just over 40 theaters. Universal will report box office grosses that include regular paid sales plus full ticket prices for each free admission. With $15M worth of free tickets allocated for opening weekend, it will be unlikely that the paid portion will make up a sizable amount. Film fans who visit the promotional web site can get up to ten complimentary tickets each. However, the studio should get some extra buzz that it could benefit from when the DVD is released a few months down the road.

Nick Nolte and Scott Mechlowicz in "Peaceful Warrior."
The Ninja Turtles ruled the box office last weekend in "TMNT," but will face a formidable foe in Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" which will play to the same audience. A 40% drop would give the animated actioner $14M for the frame and $43M after ten days. Warner Bros has also been raking in the dough with its stylish war epic 300 which has been holding up surprisingly well. Another 40% fall will put the R-rated battle pic at $12M boosting the cume to $180M after 24 days. Mark Wahlberg's "Shooter" could decline by 45% to $8M giving Paramount a ten-day total of $27M.
LAST YEAR: Smashing the March opening weekend record set four years earlier by its predecessor, "Ice Age: The Meltdown" shot straight to number one with a colossal $68M debut. The Fox juggernaut went on to gross $195.3M domestically and a towering $657M worldwide giving the "Ice Age" duo over $1 billion in global grosses. Dropping to second was "Inside Man" with $15.4M. Warner Bros. launched its urban drama "ATL" in third with $11.6M on its way to $21.2M. Rounding out the top five were "Failure to Launch" with $6.5M and "V for Vendetta" with $6.3M. The horror flick "Slither" creeped into eighth place with a $3.9M opening leading to a $7.8M final. Sony claimed the year's most notorious flop with "Basic Instinct 2" which bowed to $3.2M on its way to a pathetic $5.9M before sweeping the Razzie Awards.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Paramount offers the Will Ferrell pic "Blades of Glory" while Disney goes after the kids with the animated flick "Meet the Robinsons." Together, the pictures should help the marketplace surge and allow the top ten to cross the $100M mark for the fifth consecutive frame. The box office has not seen this kind of streak since last summer. Smaller films entering the multiplexes include the action pic "The Lookout" from Miramax and Universal's uplifting drama "Peaceful Warrior."
Comedy king Will Ferrell skates into theaters everywhere looking for another gold medal with his newest laugher "Blades of Glory." The PG-13 film finds the funnyman and Jon Heder playing rival figure skaters who must team up as a pair in order to compete again. Amy Poehler, Will Arnett, Jenna Fischer, and Craig T. Nelson co-star. "Blades" boasts the two main ingredients to a successful comedy hit - a bankable star and a unique concept. Add in the very funny commercials and trailers and Paramount is well-positioned to score its second number one hit of the year joining fellow star-driven comedy "Norbit." Both pics were produced by DreamWorks.
Ferrell left the competition in the dust last summer with "Talladega Nights" which bowed to a robust $47M on its way to a $148M final. "Blades" doesn't have as big of a marketing push or the prime summer play period so its opening will not soar as high. But the former "Saturday Night Live" star will again prove that he is a reliable draw. The industry had some doubts in 2005 when both "Bewitched" and "Kicking and Screaming" failed to reach $65M. Ferrell's 2004 hit "Anchorman" debuted to $28.4M and "Blades" should play out like that one, only bigger. Teens and young adults will be the driving force plus there is plenty of cross-gender appeal. Though the marketplace is crowded with many options, there aren't too many direct threats. "Wild Hogs," the only major comedy, is getting old as is "300" which most high school and college students have already seen. Spinning into over 3,000 theaters, "Blades of Glory" should finish in first place and win about $37M over the weekend.

Ferrell and Heder in "Blades of Glory."
Disney uses its patented moves to go after the family audience with its latest animated offering "Meet the Robinsons." With most digital toons these days being of the PG variety, "Robinsons" carries a G rating which it hopes will help convince parents to buy tickets for even the youngest of their children. The story follows an orphan boy who befriends a kind family and features the voices of Angela Bassett, Tom Selleck, and Adam West. In the cartoon world, films sell best when they are comedies and feature popular comedians in central roles. "Robinsons" at least has the first factor working for it.
The marketing has been strong and trailers have been funny. But unlike the studio's last film for kids, "Bridge to Terabithia," this time competition will be a force. "TMNT" and "The Last Mimzy" will only be in their second weekends and are set to steal away about $20M worth of business from the same target audience. Luckily, the weekend's two other new films will attract different segments of the moviegoing crowd. "Meet the Robinsons" does not have the firepower to reach the heights of Pixar pics. Rather, it may bring out the same size audience as last fall's "Open Season" which bowed to $23.2M from an ultrawide 3,833 locations. "Meet the Robinsons" bows in roughly 3,200 sites but could exploit its studio's brand name to deliver a similar gross of about $23M.

Let's "Meet the Robinsons."
Years after leaving the sitcom world of NBC's "3rd Rock From the Sun," Joseph Gordon-Levitt anchors the heist thriller "The Lookout." The R-rated Miramax release comes from writer-turned-rookie-director Scott Frank and co-stars Jeff Daniels. Starpower is seriously lacking here and that will hurt its box office prospects. Reviews have been good, but the target audience of young adults have "Blades of Glory," "300," and "Shooter" to choose from and all of them offer more for the money. With only so much marketing and distribution strength behind it, the film will have a tough time just getting an invite to the top ten. "The Lookout" debuts in about 1,000 theaters on Friday and could collect about $4M over three days.

Jeff Daniels and Joseph Gordon-Levitt in "The Lookout."
In an unorthodox approach, Universal will be releasing the inspirational drama "Peaceful Warrior" in 615 theaters this weekend but most moviegoers will actually be getting free tickets through a promotion with Best Buy. The PG-13 film starring Nick Nolte was given a limited release last summer and grossed more than $1M from just over 40 theaters. Universal will report box office grosses that include regular paid sales plus full ticket prices for each free admission. With $15M worth of free tickets allocated for opening weekend, it will be unlikely that the paid portion will make up a sizable amount. Film fans who visit the promotional web site can get up to ten complimentary tickets each. However, the studio should get some extra buzz that it could benefit from when the DVD is released a few months down the road.

Nick Nolte and Scott Mechlowicz in "Peaceful Warrior."
The Ninja Turtles ruled the box office last weekend in "TMNT," but will face a formidable foe in Disney's "Meet the Robinsons" which will play to the same audience. A 40% drop would give the animated actioner $14M for the frame and $43M after ten days. Warner Bros has also been raking in the dough with its stylish war epic 300 which has been holding up surprisingly well. Another 40% fall will put the R-rated battle pic at $12M boosting the cume to $180M after 24 days. Mark Wahlberg's "Shooter" could decline by 45% to $8M giving Paramount a ten-day total of $27M.
LAST YEAR: Smashing the March opening weekend record set four years earlier by its predecessor, "Ice Age: The Meltdown" shot straight to number one with a colossal $68M debut. The Fox juggernaut went on to gross $195.3M domestically and a towering $657M worldwide giving the "Ice Age" duo over $1 billion in global grosses. Dropping to second was "Inside Man" with $15.4M. Warner Bros. launched its urban drama "ATL" in third with $11.6M on its way to $21.2M. Rounding out the top five were "Failure to Launch" with $6.5M and "V for Vendetta" with $6.3M. The horror flick "Slither" creeped into eighth place with a $3.9M opening leading to a $7.8M final. Sony claimed the year's most notorious flop with "Basic Instinct 2" which bowed to $3.2M on its way to a pathetic $5.9M before sweeping the Razzie Awards.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
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Mavtactic writes: on Mar 29 2007 07:04 PM first (Reply to this) |
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Erick Peterson writes: on Mar 29 2007 09:26 PM [b]oh great[/b] The new Adam Sandler makes his latest kill. (Reply to this) |
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unbreakable_samurai writes: on Mar 30 2007 03:52 PM The Lookout looks damn sweet, and I'll also be seeing Peaceful Warrior with my free tickets. (Reply to this) |
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dracus writes: on Mar 31 2007 04:57 AM Oh, that wacky old Will Ferrell is at it again! Whatever will he think of next? Talk about your manufactured Hollywood celebrity. (Reply to this) |
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needles writes: on Mar 31 2007 06:01 AM Will Ferrell is the Nickelback of the movie industry; no originality yet entertaining enough for people who have trouble chewing gum and doing something else at the same time. (Reply to this) |
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Cindy_Lou_Who writes: on Mar 31 2007 06:07 AM Has anyone noticed jut how close Jon Heder's lips are to Will Ferrell's butt in the poster? I guess the new kid figures he's going to have to kiss Ferrell ass if he's going to make it in Hollywood. (Reply to this) |
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medicineman writes: on Mar 31 2007 07:34 AM Judging by some of the witty remarks I've seen on this posting, I think Ferrel and company should hire you guys as his writers. (Reply to this) |
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Bigbrother writes: on Mar 31 2007 10:07 AM Anchorman made me laugh so hard I pee'd a little. That's all I'm sayin. He like Adam Sandler before him make movies that regular people find hilarious. If you don't like it go back to watching Pan's Labyrinth and feeling vastly superior to us poor fools. (Reply to this) |
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needles writes: on Mar 31 2007 04:53 PM In reply to this comment (#859754) ‘He like Adam Sandler before him make movies that regular people find hilarious.’ At least Sandler had the sense to realise he could only play the fool for so long before it wears thin. The other night I stopped by my parent’s home just as the original Nutty Professor started on AMC and I saw my first Jerry Lewis movie. As dated as the movie is, his class and originality made me realise just how much of an amateur Will Ferrell is compared to Lewis. If Anchorman made you pee a little, then put on diaper and rent out The Immigrant with Charlie Chaplin. A silent movie in black and white that’s almost a hundred years and still a hundred times funnier than any of the crap that’s passing for comedy these days. P.S. I didn`t like Pan`s Labyrinth. (Reply to this) |
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Bigbrother writes: on Apr 01 2007 09:31 AM In reply to this comment (#859755) Have you even seen Stranger Than Fiction? I'd hardly call his role their playing the fool. As for classic comedy I too enjoy Abbott and Costello, Jerry Lewis and Chaplin, but it doesn't interfere with my enjoyment of Farrell, Vaughn or Stiller. Essentially you're trying to compare apples to oranges and two very different styles of Comedy. Believe it or not there are still people out their trying to do Comedy like Abbott and Costello, unfortunately they're mostly working kids birthday parties because NEWSFLASH!!! All things have to evolve to keep peoples interest and eventually people get tired of even good things. I seem to remember when I was a kid people here in England calling Monty Python's Life of Brian a travesty, amatuerish, mindless and a complete waste of celluloid, but this year you know what movie was voted greatest comedy ever made? You guessed it. Amazing how time makes classics out of ameteurish works. (Reply to this) |
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needles writes: on Apr 01 2007 10:22 AM In reply to this comment (#859756) Life of Brian was good, but I think the Holy Grail is the greatest comedy ever made. I've been a Python fans since the early days, met a number of them over the years and even did the Holy Grail tour during a visit to Britain a number of years ago. Visited the castle from the movie and did the coconut thing at the gift shop. A bus load of beer drinking Canadians fans in search of the Holy Grail locations winding it's way through England and Scotand was no doubt a a 'silly' sight for the locals, but a hilarious time for all on the bus. The Pythons=Genuis Ferrell=Moron. (Reply to this) |
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Bigbrother writes: on Apr 02 2007 07:33 AM In reply to this comment (#859757) I think the English like Life of Brian better because they have fond memories of John Cleese and Micheal Palin on Channel 4 making fools of the Bishop of Southwark. If you haven't seen that interview it's almost as funny as parts of the movie. Especially the "Yes, I'm sure you set out to have an open mind" rebuttal from Palin. Classic. As for Farrell, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree for now and revisit the argument in 20 years when he's winning his award...for best comedian ever!!! (Reply to this) |
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