Box Office Guru Preview: "Pirates" Awaits Massive Holiday Treasure
Multiplexes are stocking up on popcorn, soda, and overpriced candy in anticipation of record crowds that could make this Memorial Day holiday frame the biggest weekend in box office history.
Leading the charge will be the Johnny Depp-anchored megaflick "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," the followup to last year's number one hit and the third biggest global grosser of all-time. Ashley Judd is set to take in a little less cash with the long weekend's other new nationwide release, the horror film "Bug." And with holdovers like "Shrek the Third" in its second round and "Spider-Man 3" in its fourth spin, the North American box office will expand greatly as moviegoers may just spend all their free time at the local moviehouse.
Hysterical anticipation for the return of Captain Jack Sparrow will help Disney become a much richer studio. After the cliffhanger ending of last summer's "Dead Man's Chest," "At World's End" is ready to bring all those fans back once again for another ticket purchase. Its spot at the top of the charts this weekend, and probably next weekend too, is guaranteed so the real question is will the new "Pirates" film break the all-time opening weekend record set just three weeks ago by "Spider-Man 3"?
If the ultimate answer ends up being no, that won't necessarily be a bad thing or anything to be disappointed by. "At World's End" is having a different type of debut so it will not be an apples-to-apples comparison. Firstly, the new high seas adventure begins its run with 8pm shows on Thursday night which are being aggressively advertised. "Dead Man's Chest" grossed a scorching $9M from its Thursday night shows which began at midnight so with the earlier time, the treasure chest will be much more full. But the night-before shows will pull millions of dollars of sales from hardcore fans out of the official weekend period of Friday-to-Sunday thus diluting the three-day take. "Spider-Man 3" began with midnight shows on Thursday night so those numbers were all concentrated within the official opening weekend tally.
Also, "At World's End" will face tremendous competiton, something Spidey did not have to deal with. The rest of the top five is likely to steal away over $80M during the three-day portion of the holiday weekend. For the latest webslinger's bow, the next four films in the market made less than $16M. And although "Pirates" will secure thousands of screens, it will still enter a box office where close to 15,000 auditoriums will already be booked up with the third servings of "Shrek" and "Spider-Man." It will be tougher for "Pirates" to land that sixth or seventh screen within a megaplex.
But working in Sparrow's favor is the Monday holiday which will make Sunday perform more like a Saturday which will certainly help its quest for new records. Also overall anticipation for the franchise seems to be higher than it was for Peter Parker. MovieTickets.com reported that advance sales for "At World's End" is beating both "Spider-Man 3" and "Dead Man's Chest" at the same point in their sales cycles. Plus "Pirates" has the highest female appeal for any action movie franchise out there which is a key contributor to its immense grosses. This one will bring in everyone and with all Americans having extra time off, there will be plenty of time for people to eventually find a showtime that's not sold out.
Reviews have been mixed for the latest "Pirates" and its running time with trailers is close to three hours. But the two biggest openings of all-time were also long pics at about two-and-a-half hours in length each without trailers so multiplexes will find a way to dump underperforming titles (and there are plenty to choose from) and make room for Davy Jones and his gang. Friday-to-Monday starts for those smashes were $161.4M for "Spider-Man 3" and $153.8M for "Dead Man's Chest." Seizing screens in over 4,000 theaters, "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" might open to about $162M over four days and roughly $183M from Thursday to Monday.
"Hey Professor, what's another word for pirate treasure?"
The daring folks at Lionsgate will open their own film nationally on Friday challenging the triumvirate of threequels. The horror flick "Bug" stars Ashley Judd as a lonely waitress who thinks that insects (spiders that bite teenage photographers maybe?) are out to get her. The R-rated film will try to court the fright crowd not interested in ahoy matey shenanigans, but will find an incredibly tough time floating in this weekend's marketplace. There is nothing about "Bug" that tells fans that they should pay top dollar now instead of renting the DVD a mere three months down the road. Judd's starpower has been on the decline for years. She's not that hot star from "Double Jeopardy" anymore. And marketing the film as being from the director of "The Exorcist" will do little as well. Opening in 1,661 theaters, "Bug" might crawl to about $6M over four days.
"Bug," going for that coveted 4th spot in the weekend box office.
Dropping to the runnerup spot with what could be one of the largest grosses ever for a second-place film will be the animated blockbuster "Shrek the Third" which is coming off of the third largest debut in box office history. "Shrek 2" had mostly the same release pattern in 2004 and saw its four-day Memorial Day weekend tally dip only 12% from its three-day opening weekend figure. The holiday is one of the busiest times for families at the multiplexes so kidpics typically hold up very well. As the third chapter in the series, audience erosion should be faster for the new ogre film. Plus with "Pirates" set to launch with such astonishing numbers, "Shrek the Third" can't help but be pushed aside by the competition. Still a 35% drop would give Paramount a stunning $80M over four days and would make the 11-day total skyrocket to $230M.
"Spider-Man 3" will drop another notch to third and should definitely see much of its audience get swiped by Depp and company given how much overlap there is between the audiences for the two franchises. "X2: X-Men United," another Marvel super hero sequel that opened on the first weekend of May, saw its four-day Memorial Day weekend gross drop by only 24% in 2003 when "Bruce Almighty" was the new opener. "Spider-Man 3" has more direct action competition and less fan support so a larger decline is likely. The Venom flick could drop 35% and post a four-day gross of about $19M which would boost the webslinger's cume to $308M.
LAST YEAR: Mutants were all the rage as "X-Men: The Last Stand" towered over the competition with a record Memorial Day opening of $122.9M over four days. The Fox super hero saga went on to collect $234.4M domestically, making it the third biggest grosser of the summer, and over $455M worldwide. Tom Hanks ranked second with "The Da Vinci Code" which fell sharply but still took in $42.4M over the long holiday weekend for Sony. Paramount followed with the DreamWorks toon "Over the Hedge" with $35.3M in its sophomore round. Action entries "Mission: Impossible III" and "Poseidon" rounded out the top five with $8.9M and $7.1M, respectively.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Leading the charge will be the Johnny Depp-anchored megaflick "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," the followup to last year's number one hit and the third biggest global grosser of all-time. Ashley Judd is set to take in a little less cash with the long weekend's other new nationwide release, the horror film "Bug." And with holdovers like "Shrek the Third" in its second round and "Spider-Man 3" in its fourth spin, the North American box office will expand greatly as moviegoers may just spend all their free time at the local moviehouse.
Hysterical anticipation for the return of Captain Jack Sparrow will help Disney become a much richer studio. After the cliffhanger ending of last summer's "Dead Man's Chest," "At World's End" is ready to bring all those fans back once again for another ticket purchase. Its spot at the top of the charts this weekend, and probably next weekend too, is guaranteed so the real question is will the new "Pirates" film break the all-time opening weekend record set just three weeks ago by "Spider-Man 3"?
If the ultimate answer ends up being no, that won't necessarily be a bad thing or anything to be disappointed by. "At World's End" is having a different type of debut so it will not be an apples-to-apples comparison. Firstly, the new high seas adventure begins its run with 8pm shows on Thursday night which are being aggressively advertised. "Dead Man's Chest" grossed a scorching $9M from its Thursday night shows which began at midnight so with the earlier time, the treasure chest will be much more full. But the night-before shows will pull millions of dollars of sales from hardcore fans out of the official weekend period of Friday-to-Sunday thus diluting the three-day take. "Spider-Man 3" began with midnight shows on Thursday night so those numbers were all concentrated within the official opening weekend tally.
Also, "At World's End" will face tremendous competiton, something Spidey did not have to deal with. The rest of the top five is likely to steal away over $80M during the three-day portion of the holiday weekend. For the latest webslinger's bow, the next four films in the market made less than $16M. And although "Pirates" will secure thousands of screens, it will still enter a box office where close to 15,000 auditoriums will already be booked up with the third servings of "Shrek" and "Spider-Man." It will be tougher for "Pirates" to land that sixth or seventh screen within a megaplex.
But working in Sparrow's favor is the Monday holiday which will make Sunday perform more like a Saturday which will certainly help its quest for new records. Also overall anticipation for the franchise seems to be higher than it was for Peter Parker. MovieTickets.com reported that advance sales for "At World's End" is beating both "Spider-Man 3" and "Dead Man's Chest" at the same point in their sales cycles. Plus "Pirates" has the highest female appeal for any action movie franchise out there which is a key contributor to its immense grosses. This one will bring in everyone and with all Americans having extra time off, there will be plenty of time for people to eventually find a showtime that's not sold out.
Reviews have been mixed for the latest "Pirates" and its running time with trailers is close to three hours. But the two biggest openings of all-time were also long pics at about two-and-a-half hours in length each without trailers so multiplexes will find a way to dump underperforming titles (and there are plenty to choose from) and make room for Davy Jones and his gang. Friday-to-Monday starts for those smashes were $161.4M for "Spider-Man 3" and $153.8M for "Dead Man's Chest." Seizing screens in over 4,000 theaters, "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" might open to about $162M over four days and roughly $183M from Thursday to Monday.
"Hey Professor, what's another word for pirate treasure?"
The daring folks at Lionsgate will open their own film nationally on Friday challenging the triumvirate of threequels. The horror flick "Bug" stars Ashley Judd as a lonely waitress who thinks that insects (spiders that bite teenage photographers maybe?) are out to get her. The R-rated film will try to court the fright crowd not interested in ahoy matey shenanigans, but will find an incredibly tough time floating in this weekend's marketplace. There is nothing about "Bug" that tells fans that they should pay top dollar now instead of renting the DVD a mere three months down the road. Judd's starpower has been on the decline for years. She's not that hot star from "Double Jeopardy" anymore. And marketing the film as being from the director of "The Exorcist" will do little as well. Opening in 1,661 theaters, "Bug" might crawl to about $6M over four days.
"Bug," going for that coveted 4th spot in the weekend box office.
Dropping to the runnerup spot with what could be one of the largest grosses ever for a second-place film will be the animated blockbuster "Shrek the Third" which is coming off of the third largest debut in box office history. "Shrek 2" had mostly the same release pattern in 2004 and saw its four-day Memorial Day weekend tally dip only 12% from its three-day opening weekend figure. The holiday is one of the busiest times for families at the multiplexes so kidpics typically hold up very well. As the third chapter in the series, audience erosion should be faster for the new ogre film. Plus with "Pirates" set to launch with such astonishing numbers, "Shrek the Third" can't help but be pushed aside by the competition. Still a 35% drop would give Paramount a stunning $80M over four days and would make the 11-day total skyrocket to $230M.
"Spider-Man 3" will drop another notch to third and should definitely see much of its audience get swiped by Depp and company given how much overlap there is between the audiences for the two franchises. "X2: X-Men United," another Marvel super hero sequel that opened on the first weekend of May, saw its four-day Memorial Day weekend gross drop by only 24% in 2003 when "Bruce Almighty" was the new opener. "Spider-Man 3" has more direct action competition and less fan support so a larger decline is likely. The Venom flick could drop 35% and post a four-day gross of about $19M which would boost the webslinger's cume to $308M.
LAST YEAR: Mutants were all the rage as "X-Men: The Last Stand" towered over the competition with a record Memorial Day opening of $122.9M over four days. The Fox super hero saga went on to collect $234.4M domestically, making it the third biggest grosser of the summer, and over $455M worldwide. Tom Hanks ranked second with "The Da Vinci Code" which fell sharply but still took in $42.4M over the long holiday weekend for Sony. Paramount followed with the DreamWorks toon "Over the Hedge" with $35.3M in its sophomore round. Action entries "Mission: Impossible III" and "Poseidon" rounded out the top five with $8.9M and $7.1M, respectively.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
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(1-20 of 69 posts) | Reply
on May 24 2007 04:58 PM all the 8pm screens up until the 11:15 show are sold out here so i had to get a midnight ticket for pirates 3.................i hope it sets the record............. (Reply to this) |
on May 24 2007 05:05 PM I think that Pirates will rake in $157 million over the four days. Bug will make $3 million, tops. If Lionsgate couldn`t make a film with Larry the Cable Guy in it successful, they certainly can`t do nothing with Ashley Judd. (Reply to this) |
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on May 24 2007 06:21 PM Personally, I hope Spidey keeps the record. I prefer those films over the Pirate movies. But that's just me. (Reply to this) |
on May 24 2007 06:31 PM I actually preffered two over one! Im not in this coz of Johnny Depp, even though hes cool. I was just blown away by the visuals in 2. Hope 3 is even better! I do wish these boards didnt need to fill us in with box-office revenus though! All we need to ever know is did it do well enough to warrant a sequel or 2! How much money studio executives made is highly irrellevent, especially when a movie sucks! That made lots, i dont want to be reminded that crapfest Titanic, took lots of our money! That just throws salt into the wound! (Reply to this) |
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on May 24 2007 06:36 PM pirates will make money, don't get me wrong, but I think that Shrek will provide stiffer competition than people are crediting it, therefore Pirates 3 will take a hit (Reply to this) |
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on May 24 2007 07:55 PM This month has been a mess so far. Pirates will not beat out Spider-Man 3, but might have a chance at succeeding Dead Man's Chest. Geez, this is the third poorly rated blockbuster out this month. (Reply to this) |
on May 24 2007 08:35 PM [b]What a weird movie![/b] I loved it though! ....but some of the scenes and surreal moments are (as one review I read put it) like something out of a monty python film. It detracts from the "realism" of the other films (what little they had!) and gives viewers a story of Greek mythological proportions with gods and underworlds etc. For those that have seen 'The Adventures of Baron Munchausen', I think it has a similar style to that at times. The movie is long, and I agree with the complaints about it trying to cram in too much. It was confusing yes, but after viewing it more than once I'm sure you'll probably understand who was doing what to who better. The reason this is so hard to follow is because people's motives literally change every 5 mins. Chow Yun-Fat is definitely underused, which is fine, but why he made it on the posters as a main character is odd? I sense perhaps any prequels, sequels (or computer games and animes) may serve to explain his character better since he's had many run-ins with Jack Sparrow in the past it seems. In fact, his backstory could lead to a stand-alone film itself perhaps. HOWEVER, in "At World's End" (SPOILER) he only serves to provide (1) a map and (2) enable a certain character to have a higher 'ranking' later on - so i really don't think his character was necessary in the end. Singapore was a nice set though. It's hard what to tell people about this movie other than it's just really friggen' weird, and I like all things pirates so I was always going to like it. It is nothing like the first Pirates in my opinion, and it's also quite different to Dead Man's Chest, yet probably more similar in that most of the characters from that have carried over. There are less intimate moments with the characters, and at times you forget what they're all about, so I would highly recommend anyone seeing this movie go see DMC before, as it'd make you feel more envolved, make you care about the characters more, and you'll probably have a better time. (Reply to this) |
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on May 24 2007 09:25 PM i saw it tonight, and thought it was great! out of the "3" movies this month, it was definately the better one. i don't think it will beat Spidey 3's first weekend, but it will beat shrek's. (Reply to this) |
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on May 24 2007 10:11 PM Who and why does anyone give a shit? is there bonus points to be had for being the highest weekend take in history? Unless your an excecutive at disney then it doesnt affect us And here we are with this massive breakdown of statistics. its made out to be like the bloody superbowl (Reply to this) |
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on May 25 2007 12:47 AM i'd have to agree with this..........."It is nothing like the first Pirates in my opinion, and it's also quite different to Dead Man's Chest' ..........totally agree.............it only dragged a little but i think they needed to do that to better explain some details......... i give it a 3 out of 4 stars............... (Reply to this) |
on May 25 2007 07:38 AM In reply to this comment (#866734) People care because people are competitive and they support their "team" in this case the movies. Spiderman fans vs pirates fans are the people who care. There's something about that number 1 spot for a-n-y-t-h-i-n-g not just box office. Whenever there's competition for a record people get interested. People make a big deal out of records take weather, fastest times, anything really ect. I don't know why you'd have at ask a question like that? It's common sense! (Reply to this) |
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on May 25 2007 09:04 AM In reply to this comment (#866736) Because it's asinine for people to care so much about something that means so little...for example the gross profit of slightly above-average popcorn flicks. (Reply to this) |
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on May 25 2007 09:20 AM In reply to this comment (#866737) Thanks for telling us what we should care about. It's nice to have that cleared up. ;) (Reply to this) |
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on May 25 2007 09:21 AM In reply to this comment (#866728) spiderman 3 sucked, it doesn't deserve the record. Plus Depp kicks ass (Reply to this) |
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on May 25 2007 09:40 AM i honestly dont care what makes more. i really dug the new Pirates movie, and it completed the trilogy nicely (Reply to this) |
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on May 25 2007 09:46 AM I saw on Lee's website an early report of a $20M take on Thursday night. That could definitely hurt its chances of breaking Spidey 3's record since that won't be counted toward the 3-day take. (Reply to this) |
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on May 25 2007 09:57 AM i'm guessin' pirates will rake in 175 over the 4 day weekend. the only thing hurting this flick is the frikkin 2 hours and 45 minute run time. its disney so, add on 20 minutes of previews. i think shrek has nothing to do with what it'll make. one thing's for sure...if you're not a parent with kids, i'd avoid the theaters this weekend... (Reply to this) |
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on May 25 2007 11:19 AM Because of length, I doubt it will break records. But who cares, I don't see movies to give it a title. I see them to take my mind of all the shit that happens in real life. Thats the true reason I hate micheal moore. (Reply to this) |
on May 25 2007 01:28 PM In reply to this comment (#866737) Well again you prove your opinion means nothing. But you do know that some people are stockholders, like me, so i care when a movies does well. (Reply to this) |
on May 25 2007 01:49 PM I saw it last night and really enjoyed it, it was better than the 2nd(which I liked), the best scene is Depp's first one. Year of the Dog just expanded here today so I'm going to have to see that this weekend. (Reply to this) |
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